CAIRO-31 August,2017: While the assault on Raqqa is stealing the headlines on news outlets, what is transpiring in Syria’s eastern Deir Ezzor governorate will have far greater consequences. Syria’s “pearl in the desert”, pierced by the Euphrates River, has unsuspectingly become the focal point of a war, whose consequences have been, and will be, felt around the region and the world for decades to come.
With the majority of the Islamic State (IS) group’s commanders, military forces and bureaucrats leaving the de-facto capital of Raqqa, and have been moving into strongholds in Deir Ezzor, a major battle in IS’ last stand is anticipated.
Much like in Tunis, Benghazi and Cairo, notions of revolution captivated the minds of the population in Deir Ezzor, who rose up to demand their freedom. By late 2012, rebels in the form of the Free Syrian Army dominated the governorate and the resources it commands. However, in the face of IS’ military machine, enabled by the capture of Mosul, rebel forces submitted the region to IS in 2014.
In the city of Deir Ezzor, IS and the Syrian government have been entangled in a fierce battle ever since. The Syrian government has maintained a command over one half of the city, including Deir Ezzor Airport, which had remained a bastion of the government’s presence in the east.
Civilians in Deir el-Zour protested with Islamist groups last year against Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime. A year later, many civilians in the governorate live under Islamic State group. REUTERS/Khalil Ashaw
The importance of the governorate is evident. For several months now, forces supported by major international powers have been preparing en masse the final seige against IS.
Though this may be the final push against the group, the effort to eradicate them is highly uncoordinated. Different powers have different agendas and support different groups, escalating tensions and the risk of direct conflict.
Victory over IS is expected, but the battle will be fierce.
Although geopolitical motives trump the desire to establish control of the resources within the governorate, this motive cannot be ignored. Deir Ezzor remains Syria’s oil capital, with many fields providing highly valuable crude oil.
“[In 2015, IS] produced about 40,000 b/d from mature fields in Deir Ezzor in the Euphrates valley,” Hussein Al-Mohammad and Andreas Dittmann concluded in a report discussing the fight for resources in Syria.
Not only would ousting IS from Deir Ezzor remove a vital economic lifeline, but it would also provide an easily extractable source of income for the region’s captor.
Still, the great struggle for geopolitical control in Syria dominates the conflict. Kurdish factions have established a stronghold in the north while the Russian-backed Syrian government is strengthening its grip over the rest of the country. Pockets of rebel control exist in the south, and in the north west; however, as IS faces its collapse in Deir Ezzor, rebel resilience is not expected to prevail as forcing their submission becomes the principal focus for those supporting Assad.
“The geopolitical battle in Deir Ezzor is of a bigger concern, rather than just the oil and gas resources in Deir Ezzor. Whichever side seizes more territory in Deir Ezzor will be in a better place for future negotiations,” said Rao Komar, a Middle East and Eurasia analyst.
The governorate remains the last significant contestable territory in the country, and is becoming increasingly complex as actors with conflicting political agendas attempt to exert influence in the region.
Although the U.S.-led mission is publicly limited to surmounting IS’ control, other forces are in play as the U.S. remains a major stakeholder, and traditionally acts to contain Russian power.
SDF forces rest on the frontlines near Deir Ezzor in Syria. REUTERS
The U.S. is attempting to realize its ambitions through the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), through providing weapons, logistical support and coordinated airstrikes.
“The U.S.-led coalition has begun issuing arms and equipment to Kurdish elements of the SDF,” wrote Col. Ryan S. Dillon, US military spokesman in Baghdad, in late May.
As is the convoluted nature of political developments in the Middle East, the U.S. also has ambitions to limit the influence of another traditional opponent: Iran.
To contain both these threats to U.S. hegemonic objectives, the U.S. needs allies on the ground that will coordinate their objectives. As mentioned previously, this has transpired most visibly through the YPG, who the U.S. hopes will consolidate control in Deir Ezzor province.
“If IS begins collapsing rapidly, it is likely the YPG and their Arab allies will seek to fill the power vacuum left behind by the group in Deir Ezzor governorate,” Rao Komar continued.
Establishing the upper hand for future negotiations is only a motive for those wishing to participate in formal negotiations, such as the U.S. This may appear obvious, but there is a clear distinction.
Tehran, for example, wishes to solidify a sphere of influence — a Shiite corridor if you will — extending through Iraq and Syria. If successful, this would help establish an information and material link with Hezbollah, a major political and military force in Lebanon and an important regional ally of Tehran.
“The weakening of IS was always going to open a race for territory, dominance and influence. The aggressive tone coming from Washington incentivizes Iran to speed up its operations,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Washington Post.
The establishment of this corridor would also provide Iran with access to the Mediterranean, a strategic game-changer for Iran.
As the U.S. is focused on its anti-IS ambitions and the Russian-backed government is stable and likely to prevail, it is predicted that Iran will embark on an extensive campaign in Deir Ezzor.
“Iran and its proxies have the greatest desire to push into Deir Ezzor governorate,” Rao Komar asserted; however, there will be a “slow and hard fight ahead.”
Whoever succeeds in asserting authority over the governorate will not only take credit for ousting IS from its last zone of direct influence, but will also possess an important bargaining chip and will play an important role in determining Syria’s future and shaping regional dynamics.
What remains is to determine how loyal to Assad Tehran is: does it aspire to exert influence through an Assad-led government, or through local militia and power holders throughout the county? This will determine the intensity of Iran’s involvement in Deir Ezzor.
It is expected that the latter is true. Governments and their leaders can fall, and their relationship with Tehran can change at the drop of a hat. This was evident in neighboring Iraq for example, where Prime Minister al-Maliki’s successor — al-Abadi — did not wish to allow Iran the same level of influence in Iraqi affairs.
However, Iran still wields great influence over Iraq with a plethora of armed militias loyal to Tehran and al-Maliki prominent in the country.
The battle for Deir Ezzor governorate has the real possibility to spiral out of control. Not only will it shape the future of the conflict, but direct confrontations between Iranian, Russian and U.S. forces may have far reaching consequences for global peace.
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