40 Egyptian, Arab researchers contribute to Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies' book Outlook 2022

CAIRO - 30 December 2021: The  Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS) released Outlook 2022, a yearly publication that is being issued for the fourth time in a row, with the participation of 40 Egyptian and Arab experts and researchers who put forward their outlook for the future of the world, the Middle East, and Egypt on several issues, including superpowers in the international system, regional powers in the Middle East, internal Arab crises, African trends, global terrorism, maritime security, armament, global economy, climate change, Covid-19, and technology advancements.

Additionally, the outlook touches on Egypt's trends in 2022, at levels of foreign policy and internal developments, including building the New Republic, reshaping the public sphere, promoting economic growth, armament, building military capabilities, and the impact of pressing issues such population growth on society. In this vein, Dr. Khaled Okasha General Manager of the ECSS stated that, “the considerable resonance that the previous editions of Outlook had has placed greater responsibility on the ECSS to offer a comprehensive outlook on the turn of events at home and abroad in 2022.” Okasha added, “The fundamental question that directed perspectives of experts and researchers in this edition was: Whither the world, the region, and Egypt are heading in 2022? The answer to this question is governed by the general framework of the Outlook reflecting Egypt’s projections on regional and global issues.”   

Outlook 2022 opens with a general outlook by Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly, Head of the ECSS Advisory Board, in which he presents his vision on trends in coexisting with Covid-19, terrorism, the rise of China, the new transformations in the Middle East following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the internal situation in Egypt. “This yearly publication entails tremendous scientific effort by the ECSS, drastically departing from speculation and basing on data towards approaching realities as much as possible.”, Abdel Monem declared.

Projections of the ECSS’ experts in Outlook 2022 come under twelve thematic areas. Under “Egyptian Trends: Towards the New Republic”, experts forecast that Egypt, in 2022, will see shifts due to major qualitative transformations that come after eight years from president El-Sisi’s taking office, including the transition from achieving state stabilization to promoting development after making considerable achievements in areas of security, infrastructure development, and social protection. Forecasts for Egypt predict the country will move forward with the economic and social development, urban expansion, reform and modernization of the governance system, and digitization. When it comes to the economy, ECSS’ Outlook 2022 predicts stability of the Egyptian pound, tourism recovery, reduction of fiscal deficit, a high rate of economic growth, deleveraging, and a move towards with the second-generation structural reforms.

Moving to “Regional Trends: Protracted Conflicts and Potential Detente” theme, ECSS’ experts expect the regional situation will remain unchanged for a number of Arab-Arab crises while some other crises may see further deterioration. Amid this, Egypt will continue to interact positively with regional issues and will sustain its serious contributions, building partnerships that help settle existing conflicts. This section touches on four main topics, namely strategic shifts in the Gulf, Turkey, Iran and Israel between pacification and interventions, the rise of the three-dimensional integration and North Africa crisis, and regional powers’ uneven response to Covid-19.

Additionally, Outlook 2022 thoroughly tackles the Arab internal crises by focusing on four main topics, namely trends of instability in Iraq, the four possible paths for the Syrian crisis, Lebanese elections and reshuffling alliances, and the direct visibility of Iran and field shifts in Yemen. Under “The Palestinian Cause and Israel: Negotiation Stalemate and Accelerated Normalization”, ECSS’ experts forecast continuation of Egypt’s role in advancing reconciliation and achieving peace at a time Israel’s arbitrary practices against the Palestinian people continue, which raises expectations of a third uprising while projections indicate possible expansion of the Arab-Israeli normalization wave in 2022.

Turning to Africa, contributing experts expect multiplicity of crises, particularly in East Africa, a region that attracts considerable African and international interest, particularly amid the backdrop of the Ethiopian Civil War. Further, this section tackles the African response to Covid, the decline of the French role in the Sahel, and the rise of Russia in Africa.   

Given the current international developments, maritime security received considerable attention among strategic visions presented in the publication for its substantial role in achieving the regional balance between active actors in the eastern Mediterranean region. Overall, global maritime security crises are projected to increase given tensions in the main shipping lanes, particularly in the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf.

Regarding terrorism, the Outlook addresses four main issues, namely the growing link between terrorism and political interactions, repercussions of Taliban’s takeover on terrorism, how Europe will tackle the foreign fighters’ threat, and the future relations between Al-Qaeda and IS.

Coming to the “Great Powers” theme, it touches on the rivalry between the United States and China to lead the world, the rise of the Sino-US tensions, and chances of agreement between Russia and the West in 2022. At large, interactions among major powers are expected to witness growing tensions, which imposes restrictions on countries seeking to establish balanced relationships with major powers. Experts expect the Indo-Pacific will witness the most heightened tensions between the United States and China. The global arms race and the development of military technology are not unrelated to the rising rivalry among major powers.

As such, the “Armament” theme touches on trends in modernizing Egypt’s military industries, promoting Egypt’s military diplomacy activities, and armament paths in the Middle East. Coming to the “Global Economy” section, it presents experts’ forecasts on global variables on the Egyptian economy while analyzing growth expectations for emerging and developing economies as well as trends in oil, gas and coal prices. Further, “Technology Advancements” section analyzes major technological breakthroughs that mix reality with the virtual and reviews Egypt’s preparations for addressing technological challenges in 2022. Eventually, under the “Global Issues” theme, ECSS’ experts address three main issues, namely Covid-19, Climate change and Egypt hosting COP 27, and Egypt’s endeavors to control population growth.