The Economic Analyst on

NATIONAL DEBT Foreign debt is not a problem, as it currently represents about 15% of the GDP, which is acceptable in international norms, since the World Bank has determined that the red alert for foreign debt for any given country is when it reaches 60% of GDP. The real problem is the domestic debt, which has reached nowadays over 76% of GDP. Nonetheless, this problem was created during Mubarak’s era and has nothing to do with the revolution. And I believe to get out of it, the government should liberate trade and depend more on the private sector in its projects. PRICES Prices are in an uptrend, affected by many factors, including the greed of the traders and merchants, the international financial crisis, and above all the fact that we are net importers. We should increase production and transform the economy into an export-driven economy, capitalizing on the broad base of population we have and the vast resources that are badly managed. TOURISM Tourism needs to overcome a lot of constraints in order to reach its outmost potential. From room numbers to flight numbers to proper hosting education, all needs drastic change. Egypt will always be a touristic destination, and with these fixes the potential is limitless. Currently, the sector is negatively affected by the lack of security in the aftermath of the revolution. The revolution itself has made very positive marketing for Egypt and added Tahrir Square to the Egyptian touristic sites. I believe that the rebound of the tourism will be mid 2012. THE STOCK MARKET The stock market is the mirror of the economy in any country, and a strong economy is always reflected in its stock market. That said, the Egyptian stock market should be used as a financing tool, not a gambling pool. I mean any new project could be offered for the public to participate in it, and this is an alternate way of financing [for the companies]. Unfortunately, the stock market is currently neglected as if it is not a priority. I believe the problem lies in the management of the stock exchange. Until the stock market is managed by someone who actually worked in the field, nothing will change. Those who have real life experience are sensitive[to [the needs of] what they manage, unlike academics who depend on what they studied in books and lack technicalities. Like a car driver who only studied driving in books, once in the driver’s seat he most likely will crash. ENERGY Energy prices were affected by the Arab springs, and prices have soared as the political instabilities hit the Middle East. Egypt is a natural gas producing country, ranked among the world top 20 countries with highest gas reserves. So, we have no problem with the natural gas. On the other hand, Egypt’s oil production and exports barely offset our imports. The real problem lies in the fact that we don’t have refineries, so we export raw oil and import refined products from neighboring countries. Simply, the solution is to expand refineries installation in Egypt.