Egypt’s annual inflation hits to 15.6% in November

CAIRO – 10 December 2018: Egypt’s annual consumer price inflation slipped to 15.6 percent in November 2018, compared to 26.7 percent in the same month of 2017 that rose due to the flotation of the Egyptian currency, state-statistics body said Wednesday, Oct. 10.

In October, Egypt’s annual consumer price inflation recorded 17.5 percent, compared to 31.8 percent in the same month of 2017.

On a monthly basis, inflation decreased 0.7 percent in November, compared to the previous month, to record 309.1 points, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) said.

CAPMAS attributed the decrease in inflation on a monthly basis to the decline of some commodities' prices as vegetables by 3.4 percent, fruit by 8.9 percent, and chicken by 1.7 percent.

On the other hand, the prices of dairy, cheese and eggs increased 0.6 percent, and the prices of clothes and shoes rose 1.8 percent.
Inflation surged in Egypt since the floatation of the Egyptian pound in November 2016, reaching a high record level in July due to energy subsidy cuts, and gradually easing since July.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected Egypt’s inflation to decline to 20.9 percent in 2018, compared to 23.5 percent in 2017, anticipating it to reach 14 percent in 2019 and 7 percent in 2023.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said that headline inflation remained at high levels of 21.6 percent during 2017/2018, but started to recede significantly by the end of the year, adding that core inflation returned to single digits in July 2018.

The World Bank clarified that the increase of energy prices caused a temporary rise in headline inflation to 14 percent on an average during June to August.

HC Securities & Investment also forecasted that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep rates unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2018, with anticipations that inflation will hit 14.8 percent from September to December.

“We expect the annual inflation rate to average 14.8 percent over September–December,” Equity Analyst – Macro & Banking Sector at HC, Monette Doss added.

Egypt targets an inflation rate of 13 percent in its fiscal year 2018/2019 budget.