Reuters Poll: Egyptian economy growth to slow to 4% in current FY

Cairo – July 24, 2024: In a recent Reuters poll, several economists predicted Egypt’s economic growth to land at 4 percent during the current fiscal year (FY2024/2025), within a similar range of other forecasts from the IMF, Egypt’s government, and the World Bank.

Released on Tuesday, the economists surveyed expect growth to narrow this fiscal year, with the latest forecast dropping by 0.35 percent compared to Reuters’ April survey.

Capital Economics’ James Swanston was quoted saying “The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year,” highlighting tighter fiscal and monetary policy and a weakened Egyptian pound.

This forecast is only slightly below the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) expectations of 4.1 percent after its latest revision, followed by the World Bank and Egypt’s own forecast of 4.2 percent.

The World Bank cited the increased investment inflows prompted by the unprecedented deal with the UAE for the property rights of Ras El Hikma as a main factor to their forecast.

BMI Research reported the lowest expectation for Egypt’s economic growth so far, estimating a growth rate of 3.2 percent for the current fiscal year.  

According to the Reuters poll, the country’s economy grew 2.9 percent in the previous fiscal year, slightly lower than its previous prediction of 3 percent in April.

Surveyed economists estimate that the Egyptian pound will weaken to 49.5 against the USD by the end of June 2025.

The poll’s results included a forecast of annual headline inflation at 20.5 percent in FY2024/2025 and 12.05 percent in FY2025/2026.