MPC predictions: analysts see CBE keeping key interest rates in first 2024 meeting

Cairo – February 1, 2024: Economic experts are anticipating the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to keep key interest rates during its first session of 2024. These meetings serve as a main indicator for the short-term direction of the Egyptian pound’s interest rate.

The MPC meeting will be held amid difficult economic pressures, as the LE continues to depreciate in the black market – hitting LE 70+ against the USD this week – and commodity prices continue to rise.

The Egyptian pound’s value depreciated in the black market over the past 10 days, hitting a high of LE 70+ per $1, comparted to LE 50 at the end of 2023. The CBE maintains the official exchange rate at LE 30.94 per USD.

Last week Reuters surveyed 16 economists, with a majority sharing a neutral outlook with expectations that the MPC will maintain the interest rates while Egypt continues its discussions with the IMF. Six of the 16 analysts expect an increase ranging from 100 to 300 basis points.

A separate poll by Enterprise revealed mixed expectations, with four out of nine experts anticipating rates to remain unchanged while two forecasted a hike ranging between 150-200 basis points.

During the past three MPC meetings, the CBE kept key interest rates unchanged, with the overnight deposit rate at 19.25 percent, while the overnight lending rate at 20.25 percent, and the main operation and discount rates at 19.75 percent.

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for March 28.