IMF lowers growth outlook for Egypt in FY2023/24 to 3%

CAIRO - 30 January 2024: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its expectations for the growth of the Egyptian economy during the current fiscal year 2023-2024 by 0.6 percent, compared to previous projections in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook report.

 

The IMF expected, in the "World Economic Outlook Update January 2024" issued on Tuesday, the Egyptian economy to grow by 3 percent during the current fiscal year, compared to previous expectations in October of a 3.6 percent growth.

 

This comes in comparison to the IMF's estimates for the growth of the Egyptian economy during the last fiscal year 2022-2023 at a rate of 3.8 percent, compared to the previous estimates in October at a rate of 4.2 percent.

 

The IMF had reduced its expectations for the growth of the Egyptian economy during the current fiscal year in October compared to its projections in July, when it was 4.1 percent.

 

In its newest report, the IMF also lowered its expectations for the growth of the Egyptian economy during the next fiscal year to 4.7 percent, instead of 5 percent in October's predictions.

 

The fiscal year in Egypt starts on the first of July of the Gregorian year and ends at the end of June of the following year.

 

The report lowered its growth expectations for the Middle East and Central Asia region to 2.9 percent in 2024 (down 0.5 percent from October) and to 4.2 percent in 2025 (down 0.3 percent from October), compared to estimates of 2 percent in 2023.

 

The adjustments in expectations are primarily attributed to Saudi Arabia, reflecting the temporary reduction in oil production in 2024, including the specified reductions in the agreement held through the OPEC+ alliance (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia and other non-OPEC oil-exporting countries). Non-oil growth is expected to remain strong.

 

The IMF lowered its expectations for the growth of the Saudi economy during 2024 to 2.7 percent, marking a decrease of 1.3 percent from October's expectations, while raising it for 2025 to 5.5 percent, marking an increase of 1.3 percent from October, compared to estimates of a contraction of 1.1 percent in 2023.