A Cold Campaign Trail

With the parliamentary elections recently over an overwhelming Islamist majority taking most of the seats, Egyptians are buckling up for what are expected to be spirited presidential elections and putting their hopes on a strong president to balance the scales. On January 14, a week before the newly elected People’s Assembly’s first session, Mohamed ElBaradei dropped a bombshell on the political scene by announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race. ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, isn’t new to making headlines. He has been a controversial figure since leaving the IAEA, founding the National Association for Change (NAC) in 2009 and calling for constitutional amendments for truly open presidential elections. His supporters grew in number, and so did the ranks of his critics; the former deem him a national hero, while his opponents accused him of being too foreign to lead Egypt. Amid internal tensions within the NAC, ElBaradei went abroad several times, only to return shortly after the start of the January 25 uprising in support of the protesters – telling local media he was ready to head a transitional government if asked. Now, after a year of applause, criticism and debate, ElBaradei has announced in a video statement that he cannot take part in the upcoming elections under the Supreme Council of Armed Forces’ (SCAF) rule. He criticized the SCAF’s crackdown on activists and protestors, unconstitutional policies, their decision to hold elections before a new constitution is in place, and what he called the overall corrupt political environment. Rather than conduct a political campaign, he explained, he has opted to join the ranks of the protestors outside an official capacity to bring about change through civil society, attempting to unite the youth and redirect the focus toward the original demands of the revolution. While ElBaradie’s decision may have not been controversial, the timing certainly was. ElBaradei’s withdrawal from the race came just two weeks before the first anniversary of the January 25 uprising. His timing and move divided public opinion, even within the ranks of his supporters and critics. Some praised his decision as the honest thing to do while others criticized him for not having thick-enough skin to fight under any circumstances. Still others wrote it off as a publicity stunt. And just as public opinion was divided, so was the political scene’s response. CALL FOR ACTION Regardless of what they think of ElBaradei, people did agree on one thing: ElBaradei wanted to mobilize the people ahead of the January 25 anniversary. Whether they thought this mobilization was favorable or not was a different story. “I think ElBaradei announced his withdrawal to give momentum to the demands and inflame his supporters’ feelings,” believes political analyst Abdelaziz Elsherif. “His timing was in preparation of what is expected to happen in the next period.” Many political opposition groups and activists felt that ElBaradei has given them the winning card in preparation for the January 25 anniversary; he gave people all the more reasons to take to the streets. “[His decision] returned the stamina to the revolutionary spirit once again,” says Mahmoud Afifi, April 6 spokesperson. “So we will all go down on January 25, with ElBaradei, to call for SCAF’s resignation of power.” Activist Nazly Hussein praises his decision, but wishes he had reached it sooner. “He finally realized, although a little late, that the only way of continuing this revolution and meeting its goals is by going back to the streets and fighting with the people,” says Hussein. “I think such a decision is nine months overdue. But better late than never.” The delayed decision was actually very shrewdly timed, counters Elsherif, who believes that ElBaradei is trying to re-energize wavering supporters. “His withdrawal pushes his hesitant supporters who fear that a chance to save Egypt will be lost,” says Elsherif. “In doing so, he will start getting back the supporters he began to lose in light of his inactivity in the past period.” On the street, ElBaradei critics are cynical. “It is a political game and it’s very well known. He will get back into the presidential race after [January 25],” says Mohammad Fayez, author, lyricist and scriptwriter. STANDING ON PRINCIPLE ElBaradei supporters and several political experts, however, believe ElBaradei’s withdrawal was the right thing to do under the current circumstances. Hesham Eissa, activist and founding member of Kefaya, firmly believes the decision was an honest one, not a political game and nowhere near propaganda. “I do not think at all that this is a propaganda move,” Eissa says. “He had to make a stand and he will stand by it.” Eissa and many others hail ElBaradei for being the first to call for change, and he continues to have their support for taking a stand against the SCAF. “He was the first stone for change; he stirred still water,” says Eissa. ElBaradei’s would-be presidential rivals also recognize his contributions. “ElBaradei’s role in the journey towards change cannot be denied, and his participation in the presidential race was an addition to honest competition,” says Ali El Bahnasawy, communication director for presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, without commenting on whether Aboul Fotouh agrees with ElBaradei’s move. Afifi says the April 6 movement fully supports ElBaradei’s decision. “He refused to run for presidency under the military rule and his reasons for withdrawing are the same reasons why he refused to run for presidency under the former regime. The former regime didn’t fall still. Any participation in democracy in the upcoming period will give the SCAF legitimacy that it doesn’t deserve,” says Afifi. “So ElBaradei’s withdrawal is a slap on the SCAF’s face. […] We are very understanding and supportive of his decision, so is all his campaign team.” But even Afifi seems to think that ElBaradei’s decision isn’t necessarily final. He notes that the group is waiting to see how the SCAF will transfer power and put Egypt back on the right track, and then they might talk to ElBaradei about re-joining the race. Among the activists, ElBaradei’s decision was widely popular and many are rather happy to have ElBaradei back in the revolutionary ranks. Accusing the nation’s de facto rulers of “trying to oppress the revolution,” Hussein says, “Taking part in any of their sham elections is only giving them legitimacy. Running for presidency under such conditions would only mean that you are willing to be a marionette or a civil façade for their military dictatorship, for if you even slightly criticize them you do not stand a chance.” TOO MUCH LIMELIGHT Although political candidates never have it easy, public scrutiny was extra-harsh on ElBaradei, his backers believe. “With all the false rumors being spread [by critics] , he couldn’t go on like this,” Eissa says. “This is the best thing he ever did. He can’t go on in this atmosphere.” Afifi agrees, “The decision to withdraw came as a result of the general pressures exerted on him […] and his vision of the way this transitional period should have been led, in light of SCAF’s failure to lead.” On the other hand, politics – and political campaigning in particular – is a very dirty business. Some would say that if ElBaradei is too thin-skinned to withstand a little mudslinging, it is questionable whether he could hold the nation’s highest office — a position that is bound to attract a tongue lashing or two, no matter what move he makes. Some, like Mirette Nabil, 26, are surprised by his reaction to the political games. “Politics isn’t a clean game, what’s new? Didn’t he know this?”