Building the House

The much-anticipated People’s Assembly elections were postponed once again, after a March 1 verdict from the Supreme Constitutional Court decided that the constituency law regulating electoral districts was unconstitutional. But, amid motions flying back and forth contesting the constitutionality of the legislation outlining the mechanics of the vote, it remains to be seen how parliamentary elections will change the political game. 
 By Muhammad Magdy Ghamrawy While it was fully expected that Egypt would finally head to the polls at the end of the month to elect a new parliament, for the first time since 2012, a March 1 court verdict has changed the game yet again. The Supreme Constitutional Court decided that Article 3 of Law 202, the Elections Constituency Division Law, which regulates electoral districts, was unconstitutional. The ruling has delayed the elections to a yet unannounced date, while President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi urged the cabinet to amend the law within a month’s time. As the High Elections Committee announced the delay following the court ruling, it said it would set a new time frame after legislative ammendments to the elections law are issued. Still, however, parties and political players are gearing up, and some bowing out, ahead of the long overdue parliamentary vote. 
This set of elections, considered the third and final leg of the roadmap, announced after the removal of President Mohamed Morsi on July 3, 2013, has already been much contested without even having taken place. The roadmap had originally stipulated that a House would be seated within six months of the ratification of the new 2014 constitution, but the interim president during the transitional period, Adly Mansour, amended the roadmap in January 2014, moving up the presidential elections to precede parliamentary elections. Since then there has been much speculation about when or even if a vote would take place. It wasn’t until early January of this year that a solid time frame for the voting process was announced, with the High Elections Committee later opening the door for candidate registration on February 8. The registration period was meant to close on February 17 but was twice extended and finally ended on February 21. With the latest delay in the elections announced, it is unclear how the candidacy of some and the districts represented may change. The elections will be divided into two phases: The first was originally set to begin March 21-22 for expatriates and March 22-23 for Egyptian residents, while the second was expected to take place on April 25–26 for expatriates and April 26–27 for local residents. Although the elections will still be divided into two phases, it could be some time before they are rescheduled. The upcoming People’s Assembly will seat 567 members, in only one chamber called the House of Representatives instead of the previous two chambers (People’s Assembly and Shura Council). Of these, 420 will be independents and 120 will be elected according to the party list voting system, while the remaining 27 members will be appointed by the president. Several international organizations, including the African Union and the European Union, in addition to a number of local organizations, have announced  they will be monitoring the elections. On October 15, 2014, the Carter Center announced that it would close its field office in Egypt after nearly three years and would not deploy an observation mission to assess Egypt’s parliamentary elections. “This decision reflects The Carter Center’s assessment that the political environment is deeply polarized and that political space has narrowed for Egyptian political parties, civil society, and the media. As a result, the upcoming elections are unlikely to advance a genuine democratic transition in Egypt. Both Egyptian civil society and international organizations face an increasingly restrictive environment that hinders their ability to conduct credible election observation,” the center explained in a statement. Picking a Team A fluctuating time frame for elections and regulations has only added to the confusion that was the electoral spectrum at press time, with a noticeable increase in the number of electoral coalitions, some of which include parties with conflicting or differing ideologies. The cracks could threaten to dissolve coalitions early on, bringing down all the players on the team. The biggest divisions have appeared in coalitions like the Egyptian Front Coalition, which includes political parties with a liberal approach alongside the Mubarak-era leftist Tagammu Party. The latter has already announced it would withdraw from the coalition along with two other parties: El-Ghad and Al-Motamar (Egyptian Congress). Meanwhile at the Egyptian Wafd Coalition, which has a liberal approach to political issues, several parties also announced their secession. These include the Egyptian Democratic party, the National Partnership Current and the Justice Party (which first withdrew from the Democratic Current Coalition before joining the Egyptian Wafd Coalition). The Jusice Party, El-Ghad and Al-Motamar later announced they would boycott the elections altogether. Most recently, the Social Justice Coalition, which includes Nasserite and socialist parties, witnessed the withdrawal of the Egyptian Communist party. “Each party will work for its own sake,” says Yasser El Houdaiby, a member of Al-Wafd Party, clarifying this is the main reason some parties could not bear to remain united. In fact, the only reason these parties even came together, Houdaiby adds, is the constituencies’ division law, which obligated political parties to unite, given the breadth of the constituencies. It is unclear how the recent court ruling will affect coalitions and their make up. The law, which was endorsed by President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, created only four constituencies in a party list system with 120 deputies. It was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Constitutional Court on March 1, leading to the delay of elections. In the 2012 parliamentary elections, which saw an estimated 55 percent turnout, there were 120 constituencies in the party system and 58 electoral districts open to individual candidates. The struggle to secure the largest number of seats has prompted some to form electoral lists to run for the party-based seats, too. Perhaps the most prominent electoral list to emerge on the arena is Fi Hob Masr (For the Love of Egypt), previously known as “the Ganzouri list,” the go-to prime minister to any regime, Kamal el-Ganzouri, had been trying to form a “patriotic list” but failed after several political parties, in a meeting with the president, accused el-Ganzouri of acting on behalf of the government. Today Fi Hob Masr includes high-profile figures, members from the Masriyeen Al-Ahrar (Free Egyptians) party, which is heavily financed by the well-known Egyptian businessman Naguib Sawiris, Al-Wafd Party, despite its initial criticism of the list lineup, and Al-Motamar Party. Another big-name list is Sahwat Misr (Egypt’s Awakening), led by Abdel Gelil Moustafa, a former member of the constituent assembly tasked with amending the constitution in 2013. The list excludes members of the Muslim Brotherhood and National Democratic Party. Other lists include the Egyptian Front, which is endorsed by the Egyptian National Movement party led by Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, and the Independent Current in addition to the electoral list of Al-Nour Salafist party which participated in the parliamentary elections held during the Muslim Brotherhood’s tenure and is currently supporting the government. Each list, according to the electoral law, should include six categories: women, youth, Copts, people with special needs, Egyptian expatriates, farmers and workers. The Naysayers On February 4, the Strong Egypt Party, led by former presidential candidate Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, announced in a press conference that they would boycott the elections, citing the absence of a proper democratic atmosphere, which hinders the ability to hold “real competitive elections.” Other political parties announced similar concerns, like the liberal Al-Dostor Party established by veteran politician Mohamed ElBaradei, which is also opting to boycott the elections. On February 7, the party released a statement announcing it will not participate in the elections, due to the “narrowing of the political field by authorities, physical violations to human rights which reached its peak after the slaying of the activist Shaimaa Al-Sabbagh, and detaining dozens under the umbrella of the protest law.” It added that the “the current political atmosphere does not encourage political parties to participate in public life.” The party further added that the government refused its frequent demands to amend the elections law. On the same day, Al-Watan Salafist Party announced in an official statement that it would not be participating in the elections for the following reasons: the suspension of the 2013 constitution, issuing and enacting what it has called “repressive laws” and the lack of guarantees for holding fair elections, citing the absence of the “neutral” election observation missions. Al-Wasat, the Socialist Popular Alliance Party and the Popular Current (under establishment) also announced that they would boycott the elections. 
NDP Back in the Running? The National Democratic Party’s figureheads, who once dominated the political spectrum, are looking to make a comeback. Notorious steel tycoon Ahmed Ezz, the secretary-general under Hosni Mubarak’s NDP, announced his intention to run for parliament. Many see his candidacy as a return of the NDP, which was dissolved after the January 25 Revolution, when millions took to the streets demanding change and the removal of the regime. His announcement has irked the nation, so much so that in Sadat City in Menoufia, where Ezz is set to run for a seat, a group of youth launched a campaign titled “We do not want you.” A video soon circulated on social media allegedly showing a woman burning the blankets distributed among constituents in return for voting for Ezz. Another video appeared shortly after in which the same woman appeared, admitting that someone gave her money to burn the blankets. But analysts are quick to point out that the NDP itself will not return. “The NDP was not really a party; it was a collection of individuals loyal to the president and the regime. The same individuals may return and even if they do not, they will be replaced by similar sorts of people,” explains Nathan Brown, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, adding, “The NDP as a party will not return — that will make the parliament even more disorganized than the one disbanded in 2011.” Ezz, who was arrested following the January 25 Revolution and faced charges of profiteering and misuse of public funds, was later cleared but could still be banned, along with other NDP members, from running in the elections. There have been several lawsuits filed calling for their exclusion based on Article 86 of the constitution which states that “protecting national security is a duty.” At press time Ezz’s candidacy had not been accepted, the reason given that he had not sufficiently completed his paperwork. Ezz promptly filed an appeal which has yet to be heard. A Foot in the Door One reason the race for a seat in the house is so cut-throat this year is that the constitution has clearly expanded the authorities of the upcoming People’s Assembly. “The parliament became a partner in the authority,” Said Al-Gamal, a constitutional jurist, explains. “In the past the president enjoyed absolute powers but now he has a partner [the parliament].” The 2014 constitution, which received an overwhelming approval of 98 percent, downsized the president’s authority in favor of the parliament. In the presence of the House of Representatives and according to the constitution, there are many things the president cannot do without receiving the confidence of the majority of parliament members, like appointing a new prime minister, declaring war, or sending the Armed Forces on a combat mission outside the state’s borders, dissolving the government, declaring a state of emergency and appointing the heads of autonomous organizations and control agencies. The House of Representatives, according to the constitution, may propose to withdraw confidence from the president and hold early presidential elections upon filing motions to be signed by a majority of members. “There is no doubt that what the constitution has granted to the parliament [will bring a new era] to constitutional life in Egypt,” Al-Gamal adds. But will the House of Representatives be strong enough to activate such constitutional articles or will the president be able to move around these new guidelines for power? Brown clarifies that the relationship between the president and the parliament is dependent not only on the constitutional text but also on the political context. The same constitutional provisions can operate very differently in practice depending on the party system, the electoral law and many other factors. “All indications in Egypt are that the presidency will be very strong. Existing institutions are hard-wired to be oriented to the presidency; the party system is weak and the electoral law will make parties weaker,” says Brown. And so the question on everyone’s minds is: Will this house face the same destiny of the previous one [dubbed the “Muslim Brotherhood Parliament”] and be dissolved? The Constitutional Court settled this controversy on March 1, when it decided that the constituency law, was unconsitutional, leading to a delay in elections. “[The court will rule on] the postponement of the elections or if they are to be held on time without threats of dissolving the parliament in the future,” El-Houdaiby says, noting, “that’s why some political parties were hesitant in announcing their final electoral lists.” He believes the independent candidates standing outside of the coalitions are going to win a majority of parliament. The People’s Choice But even if PMs do have more authority, will they use it in favor of the constituency that elected them or will promises go flying out the door as they did with previous assemblies? “We want to see new people in the parliament, and if I find figures affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood or the NDP I will boycott the elections or give my voice to independent candidates,” says Ahmed Magdy, a private bank manager in his late-30s. His main demand would be that parliament ensure freedom of expression. Meanwhile, Ahmed Saed, who has a master’s degree in agriculture and who is currently studying in Italy, is only mildly optimistic. “There is a glimmer of hope but this depends on the people’s choice.” Other voters see a clear absence of opposition parties that Ahmed, a 28-year old police officer, believes “will lead to the dominance of one party or a coalition and turns the clock back.” Going back to the constitution, analyst Brown maintains that the 2014 charter left a lot of areas to be filled by legislation. “Former interim President Adly Mansour and President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi have issued important decree-laws that limit rights and freedoms,” he explains alluding to the protest law, noting that, “these need to be reviewed.” Regardless of the current political hurdles and pitfalls, there is hope that the new People’s Assembly can constitute a stepping stone towards a real state of law, particularly if the new representatives, who come from such diverse ideological standpoints can overcome their differences and agree on drafting legislation that meet people’s aspirations.