| After more than two decades of civil war, poverty-riddled Sudan is at a seminal point in its history, facing the prospect of splitting into two nations. Home to thousands of Sudanese refugees and tied to its southern neighbor via a colonial-era water treaty, Egypt will have to weather the powerful repercussions. |
In January, the people of south Sudan – including the refugees residing in Egypt – voted in a week-long referendum on secession established as part of a 2005 cease-fire agreement between the mostly Muslim Arab north, with the seat of government headed by President Omar El-Bashir in Khartoum, and the ethnically African, mostly Christian south where the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) is based. The South Sudan Referendum Commission is expected to announce the official results in early February, but initial results indicate the south may indeed split from the north and become a separate, sovereign country.
North Sudan is vocally against secession, and while El-Bashir has said he will honor the referendum results, there is the possibility that a peaceful split may turn violent. There still remains the question of Abyei, an oil-rich region straddling the presumed border and claimed by both parties. If the south secedes, a separate vote would determine whether Abyei falls under the north or the south.
International analysts are already looking at the possibility of a renewed conflict between an independent north and south over the oil-rich Abyei.
Nevertheless, southern Sudanese living outside of their home country, the largest in Africa, are eagerly anticipating the results. The referendum and expected secession has been touted as historic since it may mark the end of a bloody ethnic conflict in Darfur
raging almost continuously since 2003. The Darfur fighting pitting Sudanese military loyal to El-Bashir against Christian rebels based in the south has killed an estimated 300,000 people (although El-Bashir puts the casualty figures at 10,000) and displaced more than 2.7 million people, 200,000 of whom have fled to neighboring Chad.In Egypt, voting stations across the capital, including in Maadi, saw hopeful southern Sudanese casting their votes. Many told local media they believe their region’s break from the Muslim north could bring them a measure of peace. Historically, the more ethnically diverse south, with more than 200 different tribes, is already separate in culture and religious traditions from the Arabic-speaking north
The Egyptian government declared in January that it will accept the will of the Sudanese people, whatever the outcome of the referendum.
Khartoum and Cairo have covered many miles in repairing relations since their fallout following 1995’s failed assassination attempt on President Hosni Mubarak in Ethiopia. The attack was blamed on Sudanese militants.
With the exception of the long-standing dispute over the precise demarcation of Egypt’s southern border with Sudan, specifically over the sovereignty of the Halaib Triangle, sandwiched along the Red Sea coast between the two countries, Cairo and Khartoum relations have grown closer over the past decade. Even verbal sparring between Cairo and Khartoum in late 2010 over Halaib had simmered down, revealing itself to be no more than political banter.
The likely prospect of Sudan splitting into two separate countries could create a shift in relations between northern Sudan, ruled with an iron fist by El-Bashir, and Egypt. All the same, Ayman Abdel-Wahab, a political analyst with Al-AhramCenter for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) and head of the periodical The Arab Strategic Report, says that Egypt would be neither apologetic or conservative about building strong bonds with a new southern state.
“Egypt has been preparing for this. They had expected the break-up at least two years back and have been building bridges with the south accordingly,” Abdel-Wahab says. “And let’s be honest,Egypt is not really pro [secession]. However, it has been interacting with the south nevertheless.”
Abdel-Wahab says that Egypt has already started investing in health care, development and business projects down south. According to local reports, in 2007, Egypt began constructing power plants in southern Sudan with LE 150 million in funding from the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity. The plants will be located in the former garrison town of Juba and the city of Wau, which lies on the banks of the JurRiver.
“And why wouldn’t we want good relations [with the south]?” Abdel-Wahab notes. “There are many issues at stake, including the NileBasin issue, which in itself begs for cooperation between the countries that use the river.
Egypt and Sudan are currently on the same side against the seven other NileBasin countries who say the 1929 treaty giving the downstream countries a water quota and veto over upstream projects is no longer valid.
“South Sudan has other interests that it needs to protect as well,” Abdel-Wahab continues. “It has its own set of internal problems and it will be recovering from the effects of years of civil war. The country would need stability. The new government will be looking forward to establishing relations with neighboring countries, including Egypt of course.”
Nabil Abdel-Fatah, another seasoned ACPSS analyst, agrees. It will be business as usual in terms of relations with the south.
Abdel-Fatah, however, foresees trouble in the north in case of secession, which would have consequences for Egypt. “Any armed conflict or a military offensive that could ensue as a result of the split will drive more immigrants from north and central Sudan into Egypt. It will serve as a main stopping point. Economic woes will drive people out,” he says. And indeed, independence or not, both northern and southern Sudan are still largely dependent on food aid, and economic insecurity may still be a factor in driving people away — or at least in preventing them from a swift return.
A 2009 UNHCR World Refugee survey estimated there were 23,000 Sudanese refugees in Egypt, but refugee activists say the actual number of Sudanese here are more than twice, including those not granted official UN refugee status.
The Sudanese represent Egypt’s largest migrant population, according to a 2009 report by the International Organization of Migration (IOM). Most came to Egypt between the mid-1950s and late-1980s, following the outbreak of civil war. While Egypt does not have what IOM calls “a national asylum system,” the UN High Commission for Refugees runs one of its largest resettlement operations out of Cairo, making the capital an appealing destination for migrants dreaming of relocating to the West. Sudanese asylum-seekers came in droves before the 2004 cease fire between Khartoum and the SPLA, but the IOM reported that up to that point “only a quarter of recognized refugees have actually been resettled.” The rest were granted temporary protection, and many remain in Egypt under difficult conditions, without rights to employment, state education or healthcare.
A peaceful outcome to the referendum could reverse the flow of migration. The IOM noted that the majority of the refugees do not believe that Egypt is better than Sudan for them in terms of socioeconomic conditions. The report found that “38.6 percent of survey respondents reported an interest in returning to Sudan depending on the conditions over the next five years. The majority of focus group participants, however, with the exception of Darfuri, expressed a general interest in returning to Sudan. Furthermore, some of them have even tried to go back or have family members sent back for exploration purposes. In addition, 94 percent of the survey respondents follow information in Sudan.”
Both analysts believe that it may be years before any return of refugees or asylum-seekers happens. “If anything, we may see a rise in immigration to Egypt once the split happens,” Abdel-Wahab says. “We still don’t know how the north will react, on the ground, to this new reality.” |
Comments
Leave a Comment