CAIRO – 16 February 2018: After the protracted Egyptian-Ethiopian negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have undergone a significant development recently, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn unexpectedly resigned on Thursday, saying he hoped to end years of unrest and political upheaval.
"I see my resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy," Desalegn said. The ruling coalition has accepted his resignation, state-affiliated outlets said.
Egyptian experts warn of negative impact on GERD negotiations
Mona Omar, former assistant to the secretary of state for African affairs, stated that Desalegn’s decision could have a negative impact on the GERD issue, expressing hopes that the country's parliament does not accept his resignation.
Desalegn has a strong, friendly relationship with President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, as he is one of the positive figures in dealing with Egypt’s issues, Omar told Al-Watan newspaper, adding that she wishes the new premier will not have a different approach.
Former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs and Secretary-General of the Arab Investors Union Gamal Bayoumi agreed with Omar, saying that this resignation could affect the latest negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia over GERD and the relations in general if he is followed by a premier with a different approach.
In January 2018, Sisi and Desalegn had a fruitful meeting at Al-Ittihadia palace in Cairo to address the bilateral relations between the two countries.
In this meeting, Desalegn asserted the depth of the relationship between the two countries, saying, “Since President Sisi took office, we have met ten times; you can imagine the depth of the relations between us.”
Egypt - Ethiopia joint press conference in Cairo Thursday, January 18, 2018 – Photo courtesy of Facebook page of the Spokesman of Egyptian Presidency.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Desalegn asserted that his country will not put Egyptians’ lives at risk, assuring that the Nile River will continue to flow between the two countries.
The resignation could negatively affect the latest GERD negotiations and the work of the technical committee that was formed to study the impacts of the GERD construction, former Foreign Minister Mohamed el-Orabi said, stressing the importance of following the repercussions of Desalegn’s resignation on Egypt during the upcoming hours.
Ethiopian ambassador assures this move won’t harm bilateral talks
However, while Egyptian experts and politicians asserted that Desalegn’s resignation would harm the latest talks between Cairo and Addis Ababa over GERD, Ethiopian Ambassador to Egypt Taye Stke-Selassie Amde's statements to Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper came with assurance that this new move will not affect in any way the bilateral talks on the dam.
“Ethiopia respects its commitment towards the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) and will work according to the directions that were issued by the presidents of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan during their tripartite summit held in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa,” Amde asserted.
Moreover, he said the three countries are expected to hold an important meeting next week, but the details of the meeting’s place and date have not yet been determined.
According to Ethiopian journalist Anwar Ibrahim, Desalegn’s resignation came in response to the demands and will of the Ethiopian people, and to calm the tense situation in the country.
He added that the “Ethiopian parliament is currently considering the resignation and the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) held several meetings throughout the last period, and based on these meetings, Desalegn’s resignation decision was taken.”
Ethiopia PM Hailemariam Desalegn in surprise resignation
In a sudden move, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said on Thursday that he had submitted his resignation as both premier and chairman of the ruling coalition in an effort to facilitate reforms following years of widespread unrest, according to Reuters
"Unrest and a political crisis have led to the loss of lives and displacement of many," Desalegn said in a televised address to the nation.
Hundreds of people have died in violence sparked in 2015 and 2016 in the country's two most populous regions – Oromiya and Amhara. The unrest began as opposition to an urban development plan for the capital Addis Ababa, but morphed into public demonstrations against political restrictions, land grabbing and human rights abuses.
Desalegn said he would stay on as prime minister in a caretaker capacity until the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and the country's parliament accepted his resignation and named a new premier. It was not immediately clear when a new premier was to be announced.
Most of the released prisoners, which included high level opposition figures and journalists, were detained for alleged involvement in the mass protests.
The prime minister had pushed for even more releases, said a regional analyst familiar with Ethiopian politics, who asked not to be named in order not to jeopardize his relationship with the government.
Years of Egyptian-Ethiopian negotiations over GERD
Egypt has gone through years of negotiations, since May 2011, with Ethiopia and Sudan over GERD. Egypt has voiced its concerns regarding the dam’s capacity of water storage, fearing that it may negatively affect its share of Nile water.
Lately, after a number of meetings and negotiations between the three countries, Sisi reassured that none of the Egyptian, Ethiopian or Sudanese people will be harmed by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
When asked by one of the reporters if the dam's crisis is over, Sisi answered, "There is no crisis."
Sisi’s statement came after the tripartite summit that was held on January 29 between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia on a presidential level. In the meeting, the three countries affirmed an agreement on a single vision based on the Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum and raising the no-harm principle of the three countries’ interests.
Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi (R), the Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn (C) and Sudanese counterpart, Omar Hassan al-Bashir (L) during a tripartite summit at the AU's 30th summit on Jan.29, 2018 - Egypt Today
Days before the tripartite summit, during a joint press conference in Cairo in which the two countries presented their views concerning the Ethiopian establishment of GERD, Desalegn assured that “they will not cause any harm to Egypt’s entity and its people.”
During the joint conference, Sisi said he appreciated Ethiopia’s repeated assurances that the dam would not have a negative impact on Egypt. However, the required technical studies, set as a condition to determine the dam’s operation mechanism before the filling of the reservoir, according to the Declaration of Principles signed in 2015 between the three states, must be completed and all sides should abide by their findings.
Cairo has long repeated its concern over how the dam can reduce the country’s annual share of more than 56 billion cubic meters of Nile water. Egypt’s average water per-capita is expected to drop from 663 cubic meters per year to 582 cubic meters by 2025, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).
However, Addis Ababa claimed that the dam is necessary for Ethiopia’s development and that it will not harm downstream countries.
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