U.S. experts talk politics ahead of Sisi’s visit

CAIRO – 1 April 2017: Ahead of President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s first official visit to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, Youm7 interviewed Michael Rubin, an ex-official at Pentagon and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), and Wendy J. Chamberlin, head of Middle East Institute, to hear their opinions on Sisi’s visit and its potential implications.

Significance of the visit

Sisi’s visit to Washington represents “a long overdue restoration” of relations between the U.S. and Egypt, Chamberlin said in an email, emphasizing that the new U.S. administration has a strong interest in furthering bilateral economic and social relations.

Rubin pointed out that Mr. Trump is keen on having stronger relations with Egypt than they were under the administration of former President Barak Obama.

Both experts predicted meetings between Trump and Sisi to tackle Middle East peace, security in the Sinai Peninsula and the challenge of the Islamic State. “Many of the president's advisors, for example, Seb Gorka have prior to taking their White House posts long advocated for strengthening ties with President Sisi,” Rubin added in an emailed response.


Common issues
Both agreed the fight against terrorism is a fundamental issue on the table for talks between the two leaders.

Chamberlin said both presidents agree on the need to push for a “more moderate Islamic narrative to end civil wars and stand up failed states, and to reduce inter-state proxy wars.”

"I would not be surprised if issues relating to arms sales also were discussed as Egypt tries to hasten provision of some equipment needed to fight extremists in the Sinai Peninsula," Rubin said.


Visit’s implications on Middle East’s current developments
Rubin said Trump has wanted to meet with Sisi “from the start,” given the fact that both presidents “appear to share similar perspectives about the security threats in the region and broader world.”

Chamberlin said she expects the visit to “result in more cooperation on military and security matters, more engagement in economics and investment, and more coordination over diplomatic efforts to make progress in the Israel Palestine conflict, ending civil wars, particularly in Libya and Syria, and restoring a stable state-based Middle East regional order.”

Egypt has “a lot of reasons” not to trust the U.S. for the past several years, Rubin said, saying alliances are analogous to marriages: "They can have disagreements but they should not simply divorce."

“Egypt has been a friend of the United States since the days of Anwar Sadat and Egypt deserved better treatment than what it received from Washington,” he added. “I hope this visit will start to repair the relationship and rebuild trust.”

Both Chamberlin and Rubin agreed that the visit will be significant for the future of the Middle East peace process.

“Sisi has moved in the right direction,” said Rubin. “He understands Israel's security concerns and has built trust. That trust is a prerequisite for the Israeli government to push the peace process forward. On that, it will be necessary for Washington to push Netanyahu's government which is reluctant to act."

Chamberlin said Cairo will likely warn the U.S. against moving its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and encourage its ally not to walk away from a two-state solution.

Trump has long reiterated his campaign promise to relocate the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a move which would be considered a major a blow to the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

“Cairo has very special relations with Israel and the Palestinians; as well as with the Arab Gulf states,” Chamberlin told Youm7. “It can play an important role in making sure that there is not another outbreak of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians; but more importantly, it can help in reviving progress in the Israel-Palestine and Israel-Arab peace processes."


On terrorism, the Muslim Brotherhood and Sinai
The Trump administration has “indicated an interest” in recognizing the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, something Egypt did back in 2013, and “there is a move in Congress to do the same,” Chamberlin said. “But the outcome on the U.S. side is not clear yet. That is still a matter for the relevant agencies of government, as well as the congress and the courts to decide.”

Rubin, asked about how Egypt and the U.S. could cooperate regarding the Brotherhood, said first “here must be intelligence sharing.” He added that advisors to both presidents, if not Trump and Sisi themselves, “can meet to discuss how terror designation and/or financial sanctions can occur, and how broadly they should occur.”

Rubin also said the Obama administration failed to understand that the “threat emanating from the Sinai was not the result of the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood,” but rather had deeper roots. He said the best way for Egypt and the U.S. to cooperate in the Sinai would be through “intelligence sharing and equipment.”

“It is not fair to blackmail Egypt over this sort of security threat for, to leave Egypt unequipped to address the threat can have implications far beyond Egypt,” Rubin added.

“The U.S. is helping the Egyptian armed forces considerably in combating terror in Sinai,” Chamberlin said, adding that such coordination could increase under Trump with more opportunities for “closer training, intelligence sharing, and use of advanced technology.”


On economics and business
In terms of economics, Chamberlin pointed out that both Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson are businessmen; “I am sure they can find ways to encourage U.S. businesses to invest and engage in Egypt, and to encourage U.S. tourism,” she said.

Rubin, on the other hand, said he doubts “the United States will fully do what is needed here,” citing Trump’s protectionism and the fact that U.S. farm subsidies undercut Egyptian agriculture.

“I think the key issue has to do with tough decisions in Cairo to reduce subsidies and invest the income derived from exploiting the gas fields off the Delta without falling into traditional rentier state problems,” he said.

Additional reporting by Youm7 reporter Reem Abdel Hamid.