Hariri’s resignation precedes sectarian war: analysts

CAIRO – 19 November 2017:"Saad al-Hariri's resignation and the anti-corruption campaign in Saudi Arabia led by Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman are a ‘prelude to a sectarian war’ that will be waged in the Arab world against the growing Persian republic of Iran," Palestinian columnist Abdel Bari Atwan said.

"The Iranian influence in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria alerted the Saudis, who have been always in rivalry with the Shiite country,” Atwan wrote on November 7 on al-Rai al-Youm website.

“A new alliance, along the lines of the Desert Storm coalition formed in 1990 to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, will be formed with the participation of regional powers such as the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan and Morocco,” Atwan revealed.


A Fighter Squadron 114 (VF-114) F-14A Tomcat aircraft flies over an oil well set ablaze by Iraqi troops during Operation Desert Storm via U.S. Department of Defense Official Websit

The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri deems a final alert to defend the domestic stability of Lebanon, which separates the sources of regional threats from the Arab countries, according to a studies’ center based in Abu Dhabi.

The Future Center for Research and Studies released a strategic study illustrating the impacts and reasons of the Lebanese prime minister’s resignation, considering it an attempt to confront the Iranian aggressive policies that have threatened the Middle East countries.

According to the study, PM Hariri has slammed Iran and Hezbollah with his shocking resignation on November 4, 2017, accusing Iran and Hezbollah of plotting to drag Lebanon to the period before 2005 and of repeating the scenario of assassinating his father, Rafiq al-Hariri.


A man walks past a banner in the mainly Sunni Beirut neighbourhood of Tariq al-Jadideh in Beirut, Lebanon November 6, 2017- Reuters.

During his televised speech, Hariri mentioned the phrases “the danger of Hezbollah and Iran” five times, “Hezbollah refuses to disarm” three times, “Hezbollah is swaying over the Lebanese decision” five times, and “Hezbollah is entangling Lebanon” three times.

These rhetorical features show the danger of the current situation and the strong grip of Hezbollah over Lebanon and its institutions – and thus over the Lebanese decision making process – supported by the Iranian weapons and the fragile Lebanese presidency affiliated with the March 8 Coalition and led by Hezbollah.

Hariri’s resignation and his refusal to accept the status quo reflects his political awareness of the fact that this is the right time to take a step towards the right direction, as the U.S. and Israel are also exerting efforts to set a blockade and impose sanctions on Hezbollah in light of the new U.S. strategy announced by the U.S. administration on October 13 to curtail and besiege Iran.

Also, it reflects an expectation of the possibility to cut off Hezbollah and Iran’s arms in Lebanon and Syria in light of Israel's fears of the growing influence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria.

On the other side, Hariri and his Future Movement (FM) do not actually have the power to cut Iran’s arms, or even the power to start a conflict with Hezbollah. Hariri is only speaking of what he thinks will happen regarding the new political equations that will be imposed in Lebanon and Syria.

His statements clearly show that the Future Movement will not be part of any government that includes Hezbollah. If Hezbollah plays any lobbying efforts to form a new government, then Lebanon will face a new crisis, which is the lack of international and Arab recognition. This will increase the political and economic pressures due to the sanctions that would be imposed on Hezbollah.

However, the size and direction of such a greatly significant action cannot be precisely foretold; although it is mostly stated that it is likely to set a military siege near Lebanon, especially after signs of defeating the Islamic State group.

Hariri’s departure does not necessarily make another Israel-Hezbollah conflict more likely, but it does make Lebanon as a whole more vulnerable. With Hariri out, the Lebanese government’s legitimacy is immediately in question, making it a theoretically easier target for Hezbollah’s foes, including Washington and Tel Aviv, who consider the Shiite group a terrorist organization.

Speaking from Saudi Arabia, Hariri asserted, "I am free" and announced during his interview on Future TV on Sunday that he would return to his country within a few days. He dismissed reports that his residence in Saudi Arabia is against his will.

Hariri described his decision to resign as a necessary move to “cause a positive shock” to the Lebanese political scene, warning against what he called the Iranian interference that is ruining relations with other Arab countries.

Hariri served as prime minister from 2009 to 2011 and took office again in 2016.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun said before the interview that the “mysterious circumstances for Hariri’s stay in the Saudi capital makes all his stances questionable, doubtful and seemingly out of his own volition.”