CAIRO – 12 October 2017: On Saturday, Turkey announced its intentions to conduct a “serious operation” in Syrian territory; an operation which sees NATO’s second largest army directly involved in the Syrian conflict once more.
Working in coordination with pro-Ankara Syrian rebels, Turkey will coordinate an offensive in Idlib, a populous region in the north-west of Syria, and provide essential support in the form of special forces, military hardware, and logistics.
“We are taking new steps to ensure security in Idlib,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Saturday. “We will absolutely not allow the creation of a terror corridor along our borders.”
Turkey’s re-entry into the Syrian conflict is supposed to uphold the terms of the “de-escalation zones” agreed upon in Astana, the last round of which was formulated in mid-September and agreed upon by Russia, Iran and Turkey.
The final borders for the de-escalation zone, encompassing Idlib, were concluded in this final round of talks, and Turkey began to move troops and military hardware to its border with Idlib in a significant show of force and a commitment to uphold its duties in observing the ceasefire.
“The war has now turned into one of defeating threats to Turkey’s security and integrity,” said Michael Stephens, Research Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, to Egypt Today.
President Erdogan must be able to show Putin, Assad and the international community that Turkey is a major international actor and upholds the commitments it makes; the importance of the precedent in international politics cannot be understated.
Map of Syria locating Idlib province
Importantly, the “de-escalation zones” agreed upon include only the regime forces, its allies, and the ‘accepted’ opposition forces, thus excluding jihadist rebel groups. The north-western region of Syria encompassing Idlib contains a significant number of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters.
An alliance of militias led by a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, Fateh al-Sham – commonly known as al-Nusra Front – HTS has generally operated under the radar of western media where the focus has been on the Islamic State.
Nevertheless, HTS is a fearsome and prevalent organization with an estimated 10,000 fighters, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Thus, the general consensus among scholars and journalists alike was that Turkey’s involvement would be focused on ensuring that all groups observe the ceasefire while simultaneously conducting a military operation against HTS militants.
Initial reports seemed to confirm this when the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported "heavy exchanges of fire" as HTS militants opened fire on Turkish forces at the border.
In the space of just two days the coin turned, however, and the situation changed dramatically as HTS went from being subject to an imminent military campaign to assisting the Turkish efforts, with reports showing how HTS militants had escorted Turkish forces as they pushed into rebel-held areas in order to establish observation posts.
“Meetings between Turkey and HTS representatives signaled that there is more to Turkey’s intentions in Idlib,” said Jesse Marks, Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Stimson Center, to Egypt Today.
The lack of transparency begs the question of Turkey’s true motives in Idlib and greater Syria.
“The Turkish forces are moving in Idlib with the Free Syrian Army. Ankara supports the Syrians who defend themselves and their lands,” said Turkey’s Defense Minister, Nurettin Canikli, on Tuesday during a visit to Georgia. “The Turkish forces will stay in Idlib until the threats against Turkey from the Syrian side end.”
As the several days following Turkey’s declaration of intervention has showed, combating the threat HTS poses is clearly not the focus of Turkey’s operation. Two other self-perceived threats to Turkey take precedence over this: limiting the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey and combating Kurdish aspirations of statehood.
Around 3.2 million Syrian refugees are registered in Turkey, according to the UN Refugee Agency, with the number of unregistered refugees taking it much higher. From the Turkish perspective, the presence of several million refugees in the country increases political, economic, social and cultural pressures.
Syrian refugees make for the Turkish border Bulent Kilic / AFP / Getty Images
Feeling the effects of civil war and extraordinary levels of internal displacement, the population of Idlib has risen to an estimated 2 million.
A military operation against HTS in Idlib would force a large percentage of the population from their houses to seek refuge and safety. Being the closet international border, it is predicted that the first port of call would be Turkey, to join those who have already made the perilous journey from their homes.
"Even if we turn our backs on developments in Syria, can we escape from the results of the crisis?" Erdogan said on Sunday, highlighting the reason for Turkey's latest intervention. "This is why when we don't go to Syria, Syria comes to us," he added.
An operation in Idlib would not help serve the Turkish government’s best interest.
“The outbreak of violence will result in widespread displacement and large-scale migrations to the Turkish border, resulting in significant pressure on Turkey to open its borders or face a significant security challenge,” said Marks.
An important point is highlighted here. Turkey faces two major difficulties in the situation of a major refugee flow from Idlib.
If the borders are opened, Turkey can expect thousands, if not millions of Syrian civilians who crave safety and stability to put pressure on the state; however if Turkey refuses to open its borders, this will only add to public discontent in the refugee population and increase the push factors to terror groups.
However, the greatest threat Turkey perceives in Syria is not refugees, but Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and statehood.
Being split between four separate states (Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iraq), the Kurdish nation has endured a long struggle for autonomy and statehood, which until now has only bore small fruits of success.
The Kurdish population in Turkey tops 15 million, and the drive for autonomy has led to a decades long war between the Kurdistan Workers Party – the PKK – and the Republic of Turkey. The PKK are classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the EU and U.S.
Syrian Kurds exist as arguably the most ferocious fighting force in Syria. Under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) have emerged as a significant power-broker on the ground; as they have made extensive headway in ridding areas of Islamic State forces, while the Kurdish Peshmerga forces were instrumental in ousting the Islamic State from Mosul.
Turkey has been an adamant opponent of U.S. support for the SDF and the Kurdish drive for independence from Iraq, which culminated in the independence referendum on September 25.
With 93 percent of Iraqi Kurds voting for independence, Turkey has threatened military and economic reprisals in the fear that the Iraqi Kurdish experience could be replicated in Turkey and thus fracture the Turkish state.
Syrian Kurdish YPG militia fighters walk carrying their weapons towards Tel Abyad of Raqqa governorate after they said they took control of the area from ISIS on June 15, 2015. REUTERS
Consequently, all efforts to support the YPG in Syria are challenged by Turkey, who view the YPG as closely affiliated to the PKK and hence a threat to their sovereignty.
“Turkey no longer has a strategic aim in the conflict other than to try and ensure that a Kurdish state does not emerge in Syria,” said Stephens. “The Idlib operation certainly builds options against the Kurdish canton of Afrin, and in the longer term provides Turkey the ability to pressure Afrin from both East and West.”
Operation Euphrates Shield was the Turkish military cross-border military operation, conducted with its Syrian pro-Ankara rebels from August 2016 to March 2017. The operation focused on both the Islamic State and SDF; the groups Turkey perceive as a threat to the state.
The Ankara-backed rebels fought under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), however comprised mainly of Syrian Turkmen, mostly in the Syrian Turkmen Brigades. A great deal of disagreement arose over the rebels Turkey allied itself with, with many possessing an ideological closeness with the Islamic State fighters they were supposed to be fighting.
In Syria, and Idlib in particular, the constant shifting of allegiances of groups fighting under the FSA banner has made it difficult to decipher between individual rebel groups and determine their loyalties.
Alexander Decina, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations identified that:
“If the United States, its partners, or other international actors intervene further in Idlib and try to wrest the province from al-Qaeda hands, how can they better separate moderates from extremists? … Basing groups’ moderation on their waving the FSA flag, memorizing talking points about pluralism, and objecting to al-Qaeda has proven insufficient.”
This situation is being replicated again now.
Pro-Ankara Syrian rebel fighters drive from northern Aleppo to Idlib on Oct. 6. AFP/Nazeer al-Khatib
Previous Kurdish hostilities towards Kurdish actors in northern Syria have shown where Turkish interests predominantly lie – in stifling Kurdish autonomy by engaging them in a military confrontation – and there is genuine concern that Turkey may be laying the groundwork for a second military operation against the Kurds in Syria.
“Euphrates Shield operation illuminated Turkey’s central priority - preventing a continuous Kurdish region in northern Syria and preventing autonomous Kurdish state,” said Marks. “Turkey is utilizing its role as a guarantor in Russia’s proposed de-escalation plan to achieve [this] goal.”
Only time will tell the true motive behind Turkey’s newfound intervention in northern Syria. Apparent deals struck with HTS makes it difficult to believe that Turkey’s primary concern lays in defeating the jihadist organization, while many of the rebels allied with Turkey share a disturbing ideological closeness with such jihadist organizations.
Yet, a military campaign against the Kurds in Syria would likely serve against Turkey’s interests. Destabilizing the extensive Kurdish region in northern Syria would only increase refugee flows across the border and lead to intensified conflict in neighboring areas.
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