CAIRO – 26 September 2017: In one of the most controversial and divisive decisions in Iraqi history, the Kurdish population in the northern Iraqi territory voted on Monday to decide the future of an independent Kurdistan in Iraq.
Millions of people in Kurdistan and abroad, an estimated 80 percent of those registered to vote, went out to cast their vote in an outstanding display of democracy in a region dominated by authoritarian and repressive regimes.
The independence referendum took place in defiance of mounting pressure from Baghdad and neighboring states to halt the process. Iran and Turkey have been firm opponents to the notion of an independent Kurdish state since Barzani first made public his intentions to hold a referendum back in 2014.
“If not now, then when?” was the question asked by many Iraqi Kurds seeking to exercise their right of self-determination – as enshrined in the UN Charter (1945) – although often ignored by the international community.
Locked in a tit-for-tat war of words and threats, the Kurdish hierarchy held its ground and remained steadfast, disregarding warnings that the move could lead to a wave of military reprisals, economic sanctions and impede the advances made by the Kurds in Iraq since the removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Not only did the referendum take place in defiance of extensive international pressures, it also failed to comply with the Iraq constitution. This was the first and foremost concern of Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi in his public statements.
Photo 2: Voting takes place at a station in Erbil (Sherwan Wasman)
"[An independent Kurdistan] is not up to me, this is a constitutional matter,” Abadi said to the Associated Press on September 16.
"If [Iraq's Kurds] want to go along that road, they should work towards amending the constitution," Abadi said. "In that case we have to go all the way through parliament and a referendum to the whole Iraqi people.
The 2005 Iraqi constitution does not permit for a formal and entrenched division of the Iraqi territory, thus it does not facilitate the creation of a state within a state.
Abadi should not be condemned for leaning on the weight of the constitution for support, the leader of any country should uphold the law of the land to the highest regard, and this is what Abadi contends.
Yet, the value of the constitution is contended by some people in the disputed Kurdish territories, who argue that Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution has not been adhered to thus far, and as such it is now time for the Kurds to take matters into their own hands.
“Self-determination is a well known international right and law,” Masoud Barzani told the BBC on September 11. “We were hoping the constitution could unite us, but it didn’t happen. So many rules were neglected.”
Article 140 makes provisions for a referendum to be held in the disputed Kurdish-Iraqi territories, importantly Kirkuk, to allow the future of the disputed territories to be directed by the will of the people.
Photo 3: People queue up outside a polling station in Erbil (Sherwan Wasman)
In a statement posted online on December 9, 2006, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said that "the issue of Kirkuk will be resolved in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution Article 140. Consequently, this constitutional question will be resolved by the Iraqis themselves. No one can interfere in that."
This constitutional right has not been granted to the people of the disputed territories, which many Kurds feel granted them the right to hold the referendum on independence.
During an interview with Egypt Today, Herdi Oma, a translator in Kirkuk, referred to “Article 140 in Iraq’s constitution” as one of the most pressing issues.
The finalization of Kurdistan’s borders has divided Erbil and Baghdad for decades.
At the center of Kurdistan’s appeal for Baghdad is Kirkuk, the substantive Kirkuk oil fields along with the highly fertile landscape have made Iraqi Kurdistan a valued territory.
The oil-rich province is claimed by both the central government in Baghdad, and the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq.
The Kurds insist that the referendum will decide Kirkuk’s status, and Baghdad is doing everything in its power to prevent Kirkuk falling into the control of the Kurds, who don’t represent the majority in Kirkuk.
It is expected that the ‘Yes’ vote will prevail in Iraqi Kurdistan with an overwhelming majority, providing the Iraqi Kurdish Region’s President, Masoud Barzani, with a mandate to issue a formal call for independence from Baghdad and the Iraqi central government.
With possession of this mandate, there are two ways Barzani can move forward. The first and most likely route, and the one propounded by Barzani himself, is to engage in formal discussions with Baghdad over independence once he holds the appropriate mandate, and coordinate a bilateral separation from Baghdad. Although many roadblocks stand in the way, this would be the most appropriate method of entrenching an independent Kurdistan.
The second and least likely possibility is that the Kurdish Parliament in Erbil issues a formal and unilateral declaration of independence from the Iraqi central government. Not only would this be a stark violation of the Iraqi constitution and a mockery of the democratic principles President Barzani prides himself in upholding, it would cause widespread instability and reinforce neighboring fears.
Either way, Barzani and the Iraq Kurds are looking down the barrel of a gun.
With Turkey bearing down from the north, Iran exerting pressures from the east and within Iraq, and Baghdad from the south, the Kurds are stuck between a rock and a hard place in determining their future.
Photo 4: Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards march during a military parade to commemorate the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war in Tehran September 22, 2007. (REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl)
Since the motive of the referendum conflicts with the Iraqi constitution and the September 18 decision of the Iraqi Supreme Court which "issued a national order to suspend the referendum procedures,” the referendum result is non-binding.
Iraqi government spokesperson Saad al- Hudithi reiterated this point to Egypt Today, stating that “the referendum’s results are not binding to the Baghdad government.”
Nevertheless, Baghdad views the ballot as a potential trigger for the disintegration of country, which has been pushed to its limits by 14 years of war, foreign manipulation and instability.
Kurdish leaders in Erbil have limited their territorial aspirations to within the Kurdish regional government’s current boundaries in Iraq, however Iran and Turkey fear that the ballot could provide momentum to restive Kurdish populations within their borders and potentially lead to destabilizing movements.
Turkey hosts a large Kurdish population of around 15 million in the south of the country on the border with Iraq, and has faced persistent challenges to its sovereignty from factions within this population.
Most notoriously, the Republic of Turkey has been engaged in a war in southern Turkey with the Kurdistan Workers Party, frequently referred to as the PKK, since its separatist insurgency began in 1984, leading to the deaths of more than 40,000 people.
The PKK are classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the EU and US.
Consequently, any efforts to support the Kurds are challenged by Turkey. This has led to a major rift between the U.S. and Turkey, with the former supporting the efforts of the People's Protection Units (YPG) in the battle against the Islamic State in Syria, and the latter condemning the YPG as closely affiliated to the PKK and hence a threat to their sovereignty.
Turkey has persistently threatened military and economic reprisals if the Iraqi Kurdish region holds a referendum and declares autonomy.
In the days leading up to the referendum, Turkish fighter jets bombed areas in northern Iraqi Kurdistan allegedly attacking positions of the PKK, causing several civilian fatalities.
In addition, the Turkish parliament approved on Saturday to extend the mandate authorizing the deployment of Turkish troops in Syria and Iraq. In the face of Kurdish independence threatening its own security, the presence of troops and military exercises are believed to be a show of committed military opposition.
Photo 5: Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 15, 2014. (AFP/Adem Altan)
On the same day, Turkey’s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim warned that Ankara's actions would have "economic and security dimensions," and would take place “in close cooperation with Iraq, Iran and other neighboring countries.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reaffirmed these threats in the fall out after the independence referendum in a strongly-worded speech.
“Our military is not (at the border) for nothing," President Erdoğan said. “We could arrive suddenly one night.”
On Monday, Iraqi forces joined the Turkish military exercise in a show of unity and combined military strength.
Erdoğan has also threatened to cut Kurdistan’s oil export channels, a primary source of its funding.
“After this, let's see through which channels the northern Iraqi regional government will send its oil, or where it will sell it. We have the tap. The moment we close the tap, then it's done,” said Erdoğan.
However, given the recent deal stuck between Rosneft and the Kurds, Turkey will face significant Russian pressure if they act upon this threat.
Hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil a day currently flow through the pipeline into Turkey from Iraq’s northern border.
In a coordinated move on Sunday, both Iranian and Turkish airspace to the Iraqi Kurdish region was closed, at the request of Baghdad.
Iran has a Kurdish population of an estimated 7 million.
Similar to Turkey, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) have also been conducting military drills on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, in an attempt to influence the independence referendum and put a stop on Kurdish self-determination through fear.
Photo 6: A flame rises from a pipeline at Tawke oil field near Duhok. (REUTERS/Azad)
Iran closed its border with the Iraqi Kurdish region on Monday, again at the request of Baghdad, as millions of Iraqi Kurds voted on their independence.
If Kurdistan holds the referendum, then Iran would have the right to intervene militarily “deeper beyond the border areas,” in the fight against “terrorism.”
Iran already possesses vast influence in Iraq through allied militias who form a large faction of the Popular Mobilization Forces which have dominated the countries security since the collapse of the Iraqi army in 2014.
“But the leadership of Kurdistan has extended [its] hand of friendly and peaceful neighborhood to all and that has been proven throughout the last 25 years where we have never caused any security threats,” said Ari Mamshae, staffer to President Barzani, to Egypt Today.
“No troops can enter areas under the Peshmerga control without cooperation and understanding. The peshmerga forces are always on alert for any moves.”
However Baghdad is threatening possibly military action against Iraqi Kurdistan.
“Military action against Kurdistan’s government is on the table,” Hudithi warned, hinting at a possible military response against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Whichever road Barzani and Kurdistan takes, the likelihood of violence occurring is very high. An immediate declaration of independence would force Baghdad, Turkey and Iran’s hand to take quick and effective military action against the drive for independence.
However, if the independence process is drawn out between Erbil and Baghdad, this would allow other international stakeholders to bide their time and commit to a sustained program of Iraqi Kurdish suppression.
Photo 7: Kurdistan Region Peshmerga forces monitor the area from their front line position in Bashiqa, a town 13 kilometres northeast of Mosul on August 16, 2014. (AFP/Ahmad Al-Rubaye)
This points to a strong hypocrisy in Turkey’s rhetoric. While declaring that Iraqi Kurdistan’s push for independence is a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty, Turkey has not thought twice about abusing Iraq and Syria’s territorial sovereignty.
Many international actors have failed to pay any notice to the sovereign integrity of Iraq since 1991, leading to many people questioning why Iraq’s territorial sovereignty is suddenly being held in such high regard.
It is clear that military pressure will play a major war in the story to come. The Kurds have been fighting for their own freedom for decades, and have been fighting for the people of Iraq and Syria against ISIS for several years now. Will they be put off by having to fight a war for their independence? Time will tell. Regardless, war is war and war is wearing.
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