Knowing Kurdistan: 5 Days

Cairo - 20 September 2017:Kurdistan’s President Masoud Barzani gave Baghdad three days to reach an internationally backed agreement with Erbil, providing an alternative to the independence referendum planned for September 25.

The only situation which would put a stop to the referendum is “a bilateral agreement between Erbil and Baghdad, if the agreement materialized in a way that could take the place of the referendum. And then if the international community, the U.S. and Europe back that agreement and give guarantees, this agreement will be implemented,” said Barzani, speaking at a rally for independence in Soran on Tuesday.

“But I will be honest with you, Baghdad has not reached that level yet,” Barzani continued, giving Baghdad a deadline of “two to three days” to reach an agreement.
“We have not violated the unity of Iraq, they did it themselves,” said Barzani. “We went to Baghdad to become partners and brothers with them but they did not accept this and we will not be servants to anyone.”

However, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi remains in a constitutional mindset.
Iraq will refuse to permit a Kurdish independence referendum “now or in the future,” since it contradicts the Iraqi constitution, al-Abadi said on Tuesday after Barzani’s ultimatum.


Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi - Reuters

Changing the borders “by force” will open “a door to blood,” Barzani said, while also saying that “the day where Iraqis are fighting one another will never come.”

Abadi had said last week that if the Iraqi population is "threatened by the use of force outside the law, then we will intervene militarily.” However, the

extensive role played by militias

in Iraq complicates the definition of a “force outside the law.”

All predictions about what will happen in the fallout of the referendum are pure speculation. Joset Hilterman, an expert at the International Crisis Group told the New York Times that Baghdad is ready to discuss the independence of the northern region of Kurdistan, but Kirkuk is the redline.

Kurdish officials have declared their faith in the international community after the referendum takes place.

“I am certain that many countries and nations will support the right of Kurdistan’s people and Kurdistan’s independence if the people of Kurdistan are strong-willed to step towards independence and declaring sovereignty,” said Masrour Barzani, Chancellor of Kurdistan Region’s Security Council said in an interview with Kurdistan 24 on Tuesday.

“The people of Kurdistan are more prepared than ever.”

French President Emmanuel Macron said that France would never oppose any democratic process, but he stressed the need to keep stability in Iraq.


French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference on the sidelines of the 72nd United Nations General Assembly at U.N. Headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., September 19, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

“France will never become part of an initiative which would prevent… a democratic process,” Macron said on Tuesday. “I would invite President Barzani to make that referendum,” he continued.

However, Macron emphasized France’s desire to seek “stability in Iraq.”

In other news:

Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Eshk emphasized that Turkey will not allow the establishment of an independent Kurdish state on its southern border.

“The violation of the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria with the establishment of the State of Kurdistan could spark a wider global conflict,” Eshk said.

Other Kurdish officials have also expressed their concerns with the referendum.

"We feel that Iraq has made a lot of gains in the past, so many since 2003; and these were rightful gains, the Kurdish people deserved those gains," said Ilnur Cevik, a senior advisor to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "Now we feel that in a matter of one night everything will be lost," since Baghdad will not accept the referendum.


Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in New York, U.S., September 19, 2017. Kayhan Ozer/Turkey's Presidential Palace/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES


After his address at the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, President Erdogan again threatened repercussions if the referendum took place, telling reporters that “the [Turkish] cabinet will undoubtedly evaluate this situation and assess possible sanctions, which will not be ordinary.”

As the days disappear up to the referendum and the rhetoric of both sides intensifies, only one thing is certain: the referendum will take place. Speculation can be a dangerous tool, but it is widely believed that the Kurds will demand their independence with an extraordinary majority.