N.Korea's nuclear missile tests aim to split its rivals

WASHINGTON - 4 September 2017: North Korea's nuclear and missile tests are aimed at driving wedges among the United States and its regional allies, the Foreign Policy said in a report Sunday.

Kim Jong Un's regime has tested more missiles this year than North Korea conducted in nearly two decades under Kim Jong Il. This aggressive testing schedule, in flagrant violation of UN Security Council Resolutions, appears determined to make credible North Korean threats that it could deliver a nuclear weapon to the United States, Japan or South Korea, the report added.

In addition to advancing its military capabilities, Pyongyang's missile and nuclear tests have the diplomatic goal of driving wedges among the United States, its allies, and China. The Kim regime seeks to divide its neighbors to extract concessions, bust sanctions, and forestall increases in coordinated pressure. Yet if the United States strengthens trilateral cooperation with Japan and South Korea, it can counter Pyongyang's threats and encourage China to force North Korea back to denuclearization talks, the Foreign Policy wrote.

Pyongyang's ability to divide Washington and Tokyo depends on the Trump administration’s capacity to reassure Japan, and how proactive the Abe government appears on security policy. In the face of North Korea's actions, Japanese could perceive the Trump administration as distracted by political issues ranging from Russia-gate to Charlottesville. Meanwhile, a US leadership focused on alliance burden-sharing could interpret Japan's growing need for extended deterrence as free-riding, it added.

Yet even given this, Pyongyang's odds of dividing Washington and Tokyo are slim. The US government is very supportive of Japan; official attention and commitment are strong, despite domestic demands and a still understaffed administration. Moreover, the Abe government is keen to increase defense contributions and coordination with the United States, the paper said.

North Korea's provocations are more likely to complicate relations between Seoul and Tokyo. Security cooperation between South Korea and Japan has recently improved, including high-level dialogues, intelligence sharing, and anti-submarine and missile defense exercises. However, this progress remains tentative and under-advertised by the South Korean government to its own public, it added.