Insight into adapting to climate change in Egypt

CAIRO – 16 December 2024: Climate Change is one of the major threats facing the world as it imperils the livelihoods of many individuals around the globe, and Africa in specific. To better understand how Egypt can adapt, research center EUMENA organized Sunday a workshop on what needs to be done.

Water

Professor of Agricultural Economics at Fayoum University Adly Saadawy said that Egypt is considered a hyper-arid country. "Without the Nile water, even insects will not survive. A big share of underground water is already the outcome of Nile water filtration."

The professor shed light on some key figures. Egypt's annual Nile water share is 55.5 billion cubic meters, 23 billion cubic meters are recycled every year, 3-4 billion cubic meters are underground water, and 35 billion cubic meters are imported in the form of food.

The country officially suffers from water poverty as the individual share per annum is around 500 cubic meters, which is half the global average of 1,000 cubic meters. Regarding the Nile water share, 45 billion cubic meters are directed to agriculture, while the rest is consumed by household and industrial sectors.

That is why any drop in that share will affect agriculture as consumption cannot be reduced in other sectors. That will not just affect the availability of goods, especially food, it will also impact livelihoods, as 60% of the Egyptian population dwell the countryside so they directly or indirectly live off agriculture.

The outcome will be rural-to-urban migration or illegal migration which will compound socioeconomic problems and put more pressure on infrastructure.

There is already a threat to Egypt's Nile water share because of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). That is in addition to the risks ensued from climate change. In that respect, the professor stated that $113 billion are needed to adapt to climate change in Egypt. Of which, $18 billion can be secured by the Egyptian government by 2050. Further, $150 billion needed to adapt to climate change in the agricultural sector alone.

Hence, Saadawy stipulated the importance of studying the climate of every province to designate the suitable crops that can be cultivated.

Agriculture

The same point was shared by Former Minister of Agriculture Ayman Abou Hadid who noted the importance of designating areas where each type of crop can be cultivated taking into consideration climate characteristics and changes.

Abou Hadid equally shed light on the necessity of shifting from surface irrigation to field irrigation, in addition to resorting to hydroponic farming. Moreover, he suggested using saline underground water in fisheries.

The former minister suggested boosting value chains by introducing specialized complexes. For instance, processing plants should be established near oilseed fields. Also, livestock farms should be established near animal feed plants, which is turn should be located near feed grain fields, he clarified noting the salience of creating communities.

Population

Professor of Rural Community at Ain Shams University's Agriculture School Mohamed Barakat showcased the rapid population growth Egypt is experiencing pointing out that it stood at 6.1 million in 1881, which is the country's first population census. After 80 years, the figure doubled. On the other hand, the figure tripled between 1972 and present.

That, in turn, affected the individual's share in agricultural land coupled with losing arable land to desertification and constructions. In the 19th century, it was one acre per citizen. Now, it is 350 square meters.

Speaking of demographics, females compose 51 percent of internal migrants' flow because of marrying former migrants and working at households. People aged below 30 are the ones who migrate the most. Yet, they do not have a specific skill so they work at labor-intensive factories among other types of jobs. Nevertheless, urban areas still compose 44% of inhabited areas, and they even comprise "rural pockets," which are areas are mostly inhabited by rural migrants.

The professor pointed out that "the urbanization that took place in the 1960s and 1970s was false urbanization as migrants brought with them rural practices, unlike the real urbanization happening now."

As for the impact, "villages lose their labor power as migrants don’t return to develop the place, while in cities, crime levels may increase, if the migrants don’t find fixed jobs." Hence, the professor urged promoting vocational training programmes.  

Source governorates of internal migration are usually those suffering from poor education and healthcare, low income and quality of land, and by consequence, productivity. As for destination governorates, they are those offering non-agricultural jobs such as Greater Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez Canal cities.

Migration

Professor of Rural Community at Ain Shams University's Agriculture School Jassant Rihan said that "migrants are usually viewed as a burden for they compose pressure on host communities but that can be managed if real development is achieved." That is by enhancing skill sets and living conditions.

The professor highlighted that "the population size is not a problem but the lack of skills is," commenting on the projection that the Egyptian population size would hit 120 million by 2030. She further noted that "Egypt has a unique status of producing migrants and receiving migrants."

That is because there are 14 million Egyptian migrants and expats dispersed around the globe. On the other hand, Egypt hosts nine million registered migrants in addition to other millions who are unregistered. Those are located mainly in Cairo (41%) and Giza (33.5%), while the rest majorly dwell Qalyoubiyah, Sharqia, Alexandria, and Damietta among others.
 

"Migrants in Egypt are a challenge given that they come as families not individuals so a developmental approach is crucial…They already enjoy healthcare and education. For instance, all kids get their vaccination," Rihan pointed out. But more should be done, as "we have to capitalize on the skills migrants already have…The skills they bring in make the market more competitive."

In addition, the number of urban residents may double in a few years because of rural-urban migration and the presence of migrants from other countries, which necessitate the creation of sustainable urban communities, the professor stipulated.