Gulf Cooperation Council member states leaders- Reuters
CAIRO – 10 July 2017: While 51.9 percent of the Britons voted for leaving the European Union in June 2016, the Brexit was determined by the willingness of the British people. In July 2017, Qataris may witness removal of their state from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), following leaked letter circulated on news websites revealing Qatar’s intention to exit the GCC within a few days.
A leaked letter revealed that Qatar is ready to exit the GCC within three days if the Arab countries' ongoing policy against it does not change.
The letter, which was labeled as secret and leaked to the media, was sent by Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the GCC Secretary General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani on Thursday.
Monday is the deadline of the given notice period, as per the letter.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain said in a joint statement last week that Qatar’s rejection of the Arab demands is clear evidence that it will continue to support terrorism.
The ultimatum that had been given to Qatar is now void, leading to further legal, political and economic measures against the government of Qatar by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, according to the statement.
The Qatari government has purposely thwarted all diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis and has rejected any settlements, reflecting its intention to continue with its destabilizing policies against the interests of the Qatari people, the Arab quartet said in the joint statement.
They also condemned Qatar’s “lack of tact and respect” towards the Kuwaiti mediation, as it leaked the list of demands in an attempt to condemn the initiative to failure.
After several states severed ties with Doha last month, Egyptian politicians and social media demanded probing Qatar internationally, accusing the Gulf country of involvement in funding terrorist groups, which launched attacks killing thousands of Egyptian armed and police forces over the past few years, since the ouster of the President Mohamed Morsy in 2013.
On June, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with the state of Qatar on charges of supporting terrorism and extremist groups in the region. The Qatari regime is responsible for the lives of victims who have been killed by terrorist operations supported by Qatar in Egypt and other Arab countries, Egyptian Parliamentarian Mohamed Abou Hamed announced on several occasions recently.
Tensions between Qatar and the other states were strained after Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani directed a message to four Arab countries - Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, that being hostile to Iran is “unwise.”
In a previous article published on Egypt Today website past month, we expected this escalated move. Experts in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have anticipated freezing Qatar's membership in the Arab League (AL) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). If this escalated move is taken, Qatar will be isolated and will be forced to abandon the Arab sphere.
2014 Saudi–Qatari rift
Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood across the Arab world, Hamas and radical Islamists in Libya has led to increasing tensions with other Arab states. These tensions came to a head during a March 2014 meeting of the GCC, after which the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain announced the recall of their ambassadors to Qatar.
Some financial economists have interpreted the 2014 Saudi–Qatari rift as the tangible political sign of a growing economic rivalry between oil and natural gas producers, which could have deep and long-lasting consequences beyond the region.
When the ambassadors withdrew, the GCC was probably already on the verge of a crisis linked to the emergence of distinct political blocs with conflicting interests. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain were beginning to engage in a political struggle with Qatar, while Oman and Kuwait represent a non-aligned bloc within the GCC. The ambassadors’ crisis also seriously threatened the GCC’s activities, adversely affected its functioning and could arguably even have led to its dissolution.
Brexit
In 2016, the British government led by David Cameron held a referendum on the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU), commonly known as Brexit. A hairline majority voted to leave the EU. On March 29, 2017, Theresa May's administration invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the EU in a letter to the President of the European Council Donald Tusk. Article 50 is a plan for any country that wishes to exit the EU. It was created as part of the Treaty of Lisbon - an agreement signed up to by all EU states which became law in 2009. Before that treaty, there was no formal mechanism for a country to leave the EU. The U.K. is set to leave the union by March 2019.
Britain was not included when the precursor to the EU was formed following World War II, but finally joined the group, known at the time as the European Economic Community, or the Common Market on January 1, 1973.
What is GCC?
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a regional intergovernmental political and economic union consisted of all Arab states of the Arab Gulf, except for Iraq. The Charter of the GCC was signed on May 25, 1981.
Qatar is one of the GCC founding member states. In 2011, the Bahraini Foreign Minister called for Egypt to be admitted as a member of the GCC. In May 2011, Jordan's request to join the GCC, which had been first submitted 15 years earlier, was accepted and Morocco was invited to join the union.
Reconciliation mediation attempts
U.S. President Donald Trump linked Arab moves to isolate Qatar to his recent Middle East trip, showing little sympathy for the plight of the Gulf emirate despite its role as a hub for U.S. military operations in the region.
"During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar - look!" Trump wrote on Twitter in June.
During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar - look!
Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Russia and France offered mediation to resolve the Arab-Qatari rift. Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah is acting as a mediator between Doha and some other Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia, which have severed diplomatic and transport ties with Doha.
Kuwait has hosted a quartet meeting of the U.S., British, Germany and the EU foreign ministers on Monday to discuss the Arab-Qatari rift.
Potential outcomes
The four foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain issued on Wednesday four statement clarifying their stance on the Qatari crisis and to respond to the Qatari rejection of their demands to stop funding terrorism.
"This list of demands is made to be rejected. It's not meant to be accepted or... to be negotiated," Sheikh Mohammed said, adding that Qatar was willing to engage in further dialogue given "the proper conditions."
The four countries’ stance underlines the importance of abiding by international agreements, charters and resolutions on combating all forms of extremism and terrorism and drying up their sources of funding, Egypt’s top diplomat added. The four states also call for putting an end to all incitement acts and hate speech, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry noted.
Another scenario, which has been circulated among the political circles, is the dismissal of Qatar from the GCC. If this takes place, the term Qexit will be widely used as a shorthand. This term refers to a Qatari exit of the GCC or Arab League.
If Qatar wishes to remain a part of the Arab League or the GCC, it will have to discard its regional and international ambitions or be buried alongside them.
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