Q How would you best describe the past year in politics for Egypt, and how would you say the revolution changed politics?
A It ended the myth that Egyptians are passive and do not revolt. It proved that Egyptians can stage one of the strongest revolutions with the least blood. Revolutions are not made in CIA labs but in the jails of tyrants.

The revolution allowed many forces to escape from being oppressed and outlawed like the Muslim Brotherhood. It allowed forces that were not politicized such as the Salafis to produce their own political parties, and it facilitated the emergence of other parties. It also allowed public opinion to be taken into account by the government. Before the revolution, the ruling elite not only ignored public opinion but even expressed disdain using state-run media to manipulate the masses. Now public opinion counts.

In addition, many groups that were passive in politics became politically active like the youth. Groups like women and Copts also became alarmed by statements made by the rising Salafist movement, particularly after actual attacks on [these minorities].

There is also a higher turnout in elections and political participation and interest in politics and a greater degree of press freedom, but it’s not complete.
 
Q Do you think Egypt can become a democracy, and is it ready?
A Yes. It was a democracy before 1952 and has a strong middle class, youth, civil society and semi-free media. Over 65 percent of the population is young people who want, in this age of global communication and internet, more freedom, not restriction.

A liberal democratic political system meets the needs of Egyptians and the future Egypt. A theocracy would oppress them and inevitably lead to a new revolution against tyranny in the name of religion.

Q In your own opinion, how far are we from achieving democracy?
A The transition process has been mismanaged by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). It was supposed to finish in September but continued and expanded. A long transition leads to more divisions and polarization. Since the revolution, four main forces emerged: the SCAF, the liberals, the Islamists and the members of the ousted regime.

Each force wants to impose its vision on the entire society, that’s why there is tension as not one of them alone is capable of pulling society toward its vision. Moreover, each group wants to suppress the other. Democracy can only happen if all these forces start accepting and coexisting with each other.

Q What are the challenges of becoming a democratic society?
A Islamists deal with politics in an absolute, not relative, way, and there are external forces, such as states in the Gulf, that may not like a free democratic model that would affect their system.

Israel always felt it was the only democratic island in a sea of Arab tyranny. Will it accept a democratic Arab state as a neighbor?

Q What kind of system do you think Egypt is going to implement politically?
A There are several scenarios depending on the struggle between the four forces mentioned previously. With the first scenario, we could have a parliamentary democracy like the system before the 1952 coup. In the second one, it could be chaos: All four forces failing to agree and reach a compromise.

A Salafi-Ikhwani [Muslim Brotherhood] regime in Egypt would produce unrest and instability at home and regionally. It would drive the intelligentsia and many of the rich and highly educated Copts abroad. Such a regime may only use rhetoric against Israel and the US, but will do nothing militarily. The Islamists will further undermine the economy, demolish the tourism sector and make exporting weapons to Egypt difficult for other countries.

Another possible scenario would be that the military stays on for two more years until liberals are strong enough or a weak balanced coalition government is created in which the three other forces learn gradually to coexist. This would lead to democracy, especially if the Islamists start to modernize their ideas on three issues: the status of women, minorities and personal liberties and human rights.

Q How influential do you think external powers are when it comes to Egypt’s political future?
A There has been no change in Egyptian foreign policy so far. Egypt’s relations with Iran remain bad. Its relationship with Israel still continues. The US, Saudi Arabia and Israel continue their strong influence on Egypt and will [do so] for at least 10 more years as the Egyptian economy cannot afford any major shift.

Q Now that it appears we’re on the eve of an Islamist government, how will society be affected?
A First, based on the Constitutional Proclamation made on March 30, Article 4 bans the establishment of political parties on the basis of religion.

This was ignored by the SCAF and the Egyptian Council of State. Over nine religious parties were established by religious political organizations and have leaders coming from their boards presiding over these religious parties that participated in the elections. Therefore, the results can be appealed because they were won by political parties banned by the constitutional organizations.

Second, the results reflected the strong manipulation of religion for political ends by these organizations mobilizing the poor for a pie in the sky and heavenly promises, not real earthly goods. These parties will fail to deliver economic goods, and they will bear the full burden and blame.

Third, elections should have been postponed until a period of enlightenment had passed and there was a break from the authoritarian past that undermined other forces like the liberals.

A theocratic state is a threat to Egypt’s future and does not take into account its multiple cultures, status of minorities and women, the different readings of Islam and the rich history of Egypt. The results of the elections reflect the political organization of certain groups but do not reflect the varied cultures of Egyptians. et